Enrolment explosion sees Winnipeg School Division student count surge beyond expectations

Posted on September 27, 2024 by Peggy

Manitoba’s largest school division has become unexpectedly larger.

The head of the Winnipeg School Division says its student enrolment this year is nearly 1,200 more kids than it anticipated. The division budgeted for 28,418 full-time equivalent students, but the actual total is 29,605, said superintendent Matt Henderson.

That’s a 3.5 per cent increase over last year, which itself was a 2.9 per cent increase over September 2022, according to data from the province.

There’s no one particular area of the city that is responsible for the growth, Henderson told CBC Friday.

“We have schools in Elmwood that are seeing increases, in the West End, certainly in the inner city [and] in the northwest quadrant, where Sisler [High School] is full. We can’t really pinpoint to specific neighbourhoods. It’s really all over.”

Similarly, the numbers have gone up across grade levels, he said.

“We’re tracking it and … our kindergarten numbers, while they’re up, aren’t up that significantly. So that tells us that there are children coming in at different grades. So that’s an exciting prospect.”

A man with short hair and glasses stands outside near trees. He wears an orange shirt. — WSD superintendent Matt Henderson calls the unexpected enrolment surge ‘a good news story.’ (Trevor Brine/CBC)

Henderson attributes that to two main things: immigration and a return from COVID-19.

The division studies birth rate data and other statistics to help predict enrolment, but “sometimes it’s difficult to really pinpoint when people will be coming to the province or when people will be coming from up north,” he said.

The research also indicates families who chose to home-school their kids through the first couple of years after the COVID-19 pandemic eased are now starting to send them back to the public institutions, Henderson said.

To deal with the sudden growth, the division has opened six new kindergarten classes as well as a few early-years classrooms as well, where possible, and brought in more English as an additional language staff, Henderson said.

“Not every school has the space to open up a new classroom. Where we haven’t had that opportunity, we’ve added more learning support,” he said.

“We’re assessing right now where the pinch points are. I had a conversation with principals last night to say, ‘tell us where you’re busting at the seams.'”

PCs want new schools built

Manitoba requires schools to cap classroom sizes from kindergarten to Grade 3 at 20 students. The WSD is “sticking to that,” Henderson said.

The average for K-3 classes is 18.5 students right now, he said.

“We want to just make sure that all of our classrooms are appropriately resourced, and that’s always a challenge.”

The division is preparing to post job openings and use substitute teachers until those new hires are made, which is “just the nature of solving these problems,” Henderson said.

There are actually well over 31,000 students in the division, but those in nursery and kindergarten, who only attend a half-day, are counted as a .5 equivalent, said Henderson.

Friday is the official count day, where school divisions are required to report their enrolments to the province.

Meanwhile, the Official Opposition is taking aim at school overcrowding.

On Thursday, the Progressive Conservatives launched an online petition calling on Premier Wab Kinew’s NDP government to build new schools the Tories had promised when they were in power.

The PCs promised in 2023 to build nine new schools by 2027, under a public-private partnership, or P3, system. The NDP formed government later that year and in its first budget set aside money for just two new schools, to be built by the government alone. Neither of those schools were part of the Tory plan.

At the time, Finance Minister Adrien Sala said the schools the PCs proposed are not cancelled, but the province was not yet committing to them. He accused the Tories of promising the schools without having the funding.

The Tory petition accuses the NDP of dismissing parents’ concerns about jam-packed schools and calls for an end to “hallway education.”

Despite the challenges, Henderson calls the unexpected enrolment surge “a good news story.”

“That’s our business, we’re in the name of teaching kids and loving kids. And so it’s been really exciting.”

The other test for WSD is to ensure the kids stay in school.

“Our big challenge, historically with Winnipeg School Division has been around absenteeism. Who are those kids that are not coming all the time? Are we doing those home visits? Are we connecting with families? Are we making sure that every single kid feels that they belong when they walk into our schools?” Henderson said.

“Yeah, registrations are up, but let’s make sure that those kids are here all the way to June 30.”