NDP lead over PCs in Manitoba shrinks in latest Probe Research poll

Posted on March 28, 2023 by Peggy

The popular-opinion gap between Manitoba New Democrats and Progressive Conservatives narrowed earlier this month, according to a new Probe Research poll that gives the opposition NDP a diminished lead over the governing Tories.

The Probe poll of 1,000 Manitoba adults, conducted from March 8 to 20, suggests Wab Kinew’s NDP enjoys the support of 44 per cent of Manitobans, down two percentage points from 46 per cent in December.

The poll suggests Premier Heather Stefanson’s PCs are the preferred party for 38 per cent of Manitobans, up from 35 per cent in December.

The gap between the two parties is now six percentage points, down from 11 in December. The poll has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points and an accuracy of 95 per cent, Probe Research says.

That means the bump for the PCs could be a statistical blip. It could also be a sign Manitobans are responding positively to the provincial budget the Tories presented on March 7.

That budget calls for tax relief and public spending increases across the board.

The poll suggested the Manitoba Liberals are supported by nine per cent of Manitoban adults, down from 13 per cent in December.

Support for the Green Party rose to four per cent, up from three per cent in December, while support for other parties, which may include the Keystone Party, rose to four per cent from two per cent.

The poll also suggested the PCs continue to enjoy more support from men and Manitobans outside Winnipeg, while the NDP are more popular among women and people in Winnipeg. The poll’s margin of error, however, is higher for these subsamples.

The poll was conducted nearly seven months before Manitobans are expected to head to the polls in the next provincial election, currently scheduled for Oct. 3.